To explore whether Russia is attempting to revive the influence and power of the former Soviet Union (USSR), it’s crucial to examine the broader strategic objectives of the modern Russian Federation under President Vladimir Putin. The focus here is on regional dominance, ensuring national security, and countering perceived threats, particularly from NATO and Western countries. This approach reflects a more pragmatic and regionally focused strategy, rather than an attempt to recreate the global superpower status once held by the USSR.
Russia’s Focus on Regional Dominance
Since Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, Russia’s foreign policy has increasingly centered on reasserting control over its “near abroad”—the countries that once formed part of the Soviet Union. This includes maintaining influence in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Unlike the USSR, which sought to export communism and establish a global ideological bloc, Putin’s Russia is primarily concerned with securing its borders and projecting power within its immediate neighborhood.
1. Annexation of Crimea (2014) and the War in Eastern Ukraine:
- The annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a significant turning point in Russia’s post-Soviet foreign policy. It was the first time since World War II that European borders were changed by force. This action was driven by a desire to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the West, particularly NATO, and to secure the strategic naval base in Sevastopol.
- The ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia supports separatist movements, further underscores this regional focus. Russia views Ukraine as a buffer state and a vital part of its sphere of influence, and it has taken significant military and political steps to prevent Ukraine from fully integrating with Western institutions.
2. Involvement in the Caucasus and Central Asia:
- In the Caucasus, Russia has maintained a strong military presence, particularly in Georgia and Armenia, through military bases and peacekeeping forces. The 2008 war with Georgia was another demonstration of Russia’s willingness to use force to maintain its influence in the region.
- In Central Asia, Russia has fostered close ties with former Soviet republics through economic agreements, military cooperation, and regional organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Ensuring Security Against NATO and Western Influence
A central theme of Russian foreign policy under Putin has been the perception of NATO and the West as existential threats. This view has been a driving force behind many of Russia’s actions, including military interventions and strategic partnerships.
1. NATO’s Expansion:
- One of the most significant factors contributing to Russia’s aggressive stance in recent years is the expansion of NATO eastward, closer to Russia’s borders. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has admitted several Eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet sphere of influence, including Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).
- Russia perceives NATO’s expansion as a direct threat to its security, and this has fueled a sense of encirclement. The possibility of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO has been particularly contentious, leading to increased tensions and military confrontations in those regions.
2. Military Modernization:
- In response to what it perceives as NATO’s encroachment, Russia has undertaken significant military modernization efforts. The Russian military has been transformed into a more agile, technologically advanced force capable of conducting complex operations, as demonstrated in Syria and Ukraine.
- Russia’s military doctrine has also evolved, emphasizing the use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against any potential NATO aggression. This is part of a broader strategy to ensure that Russia remains a formidable military power capable of defending its interests.
3. Cyber and Information Warfare:
- Beyond traditional military means, Russia has increasingly employed cyber and information warfare as part of its strategy to counter Western influence. This includes cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and the use of social media to sow discord and undermine Western democracies.
- These tactics are part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy, where Russia seeks to weaken its adversaries without direct military confrontation, thereby reducing the risk of a full-scale conflict with NATO.
Comparison with the USSR: A Different Kind of Power Projection
While the Russian Federation under Putin has certainly taken steps to reassert its influence, it is important to differentiate its approach from that of the USSR. The Soviet Union was a global superpower with a vast ideological mission to spread communism worldwide. Russia today, by contrast, is more focused on protecting its borders and maintaining regional influence.
1. Economic Constraints:
- The Soviet Union had a centrally planned economy that, despite its inefficiencies, supported a massive military-industrial complex. Russia’s modern economy, however, is smaller and heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. Economic sanctions imposed by the West in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine have further constrained its economic capabilities.
- These economic challenges limit Russia’s ability to project power globally in the same way the USSR did. Instead, Russia focuses on regions where it has historical ties and strategic interests.
2. Ideological Influence:
- The USSR was driven by a global ideological mission to promote communism, which influenced its foreign policy and alliances. Russia today does not have a similar unifying ideology. While it promotes nationalism and traditional values at home, these do not have the same global appeal or revolutionary zeal as communism.
- Russia’s ideological influence is therefore limited, and it relies more on pragmatism and realpolitik in its international relations.
3. Global Alliances and Influence:
- The USSR led the Eastern Bloc and had a global network of aligned states. In contrast, modern Russia has fewer allies and is often isolated in international forums. While it has built partnerships with countries like China, Iran, and Syria, these relationships are more transactional and lack the deep ideological commitment that characterized Soviet alliances.
- Russia’s influence in international organizations has also diminished compared to the USSR. The Soviet Union was a key player in the United Nations and other global institutions, whereas Russia often finds itself at odds with the majority of the international community.
The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russia’s Global Position
The ongoing war in Ukraine has had significant implications for Russia’s position on the global stage. The conflict has led to a reevaluation of Russia’s ambitions and capabilities, both within the region and globally.
1. Economic Sanctions and Isolation:
- The extensive sanctions imposed by the West in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a severe impact on the Russian economy. These sanctions have targeted key sectors, including energy, finance, and defense, leading to a decline in foreign investment and economic growth.
- Russia’s increasing isolation from the global financial system and international markets has forced it to seek alternative partners, particularly in Asia and the Global South. However, these efforts have only partially mitigated the impact of Western sanctions.
2. Military Stalemate:
- The war in Ukraine has not gone as smoothly as Russia might have anticipated. Despite early gains, Russian forces have faced significant resistance, leading to a prolonged and costly conflict. The military stalemate has strained Russia’s resources and exposed weaknesses in its military planning and execution.
- This has also led to a reassessment of Russia’s military capabilities by both its allies and adversaries. While Russia remains a formidable power, the difficulties it has faced in Ukraine have diminished its image as an unstoppable military force.
3. Diplomatic and Strategic Shifts:
- The Ukraine war has prompted a realignment of global alliances. While Russia has strengthened ties with China and other non-Western countries, it has also deepened its reliance on these partners, potentially limiting its strategic autonomy.
- At the same time, NATO and the EU have been revitalized by the conflict, with member states increasing their defense spending and enhancing cooperation. The war has also accelerated efforts to diversify energy supplies away from Russian sources, reducing Russia’s leverage over Europe.
Conclusion: Is Russia Reviving the USSR?
In conclusion, while Russia under Vladimir Putin has made significant efforts to reassert its influence, particularly in its near abroad, it is not attempting to recreate the USSR. The modern Russian Federation lacks the economic, ideological, and global influence that characterized the Soviet Union. Instead, Russia is focused on regional dominance, ensuring security against perceived threats from NATO and the West, and maintaining its status as a major power in a multipolar world.
The war in Ukraine is a key part of this strategy, but it also highlights the limits of Russia’s ambitions. The economic costs, military challenges, and international isolation that Russia has faced suggest that it is not in a position to resurrect the Soviet-era model of global superpower. Instead, Russia is likely to continue pursuing a more constrained and regionally focused foreign policy, balancing its ambitions with the realities of its current capabilities and international environment.
