Iran-Israel Tensions: Escalation, Economic Impact, and Global Consequences

Introduction: Intensifying Iran-Israel Conflict and Its Global Repercussions

The Iran-Israel conflict has escalated to alarming levels in 2024, following a series of dramatic events, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a targeted Israeli attack in Lebanon. These incidents have sparked a wave of retaliatory threats and actions, turning the already volatile Middle East into a potential flashpoint for a larger regional war.

The death of Nasrallah has heightened tensions, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, a key ally of Iran in Lebanon. Hezbollah has vowed retaliation, further complicating the situation. With Israel ramping up its military operations in Lebanon and Iran preparing for potential revenge attacks, the risk of a full-scale regional war grows. The involvement of proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon underlines the complexity of this conflict and its potential to destabilize the broader region.

This conflict extends beyond military confrontations—it has significant economic, political, and social implications, both in the Middle East and globally. The rise in military activity has had a direct impact on global oil markets, while the increasing involvement of superpowers such as the U.S. and Russia complicates global diplomacy and raises concerns about the potential for a wider war.

1.Nasrallah’s Death and Its Impact on Hezbollah

The death of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah, marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. For over two decades, Nasrallah has been a symbol of resistance against Israel and a critical figure in the political landscape of Lebanon and the broader Middle East. His leadership has shaped Hezbollah’s military and political strategies, making his absence a significant event with far-reaching consequences.

1.1.Immediate Reactions and Organizational Stability

Nasrallah’s assassination was met with immediate outrage and calls for retaliation among Hezbollah’s ranks. As the organization mourned the loss of its leader, the leadership structure faced unprecedented challenges. Nasrallah’s charisma and strategic thinking were central to Hezbollah’s success in engaging Israeli forces and maintaining its status as a dominant political and military force in Lebanon. His death has raised questions about the organization’s ability to maintain cohesion and effectiveness in the face of external pressures.

In the short term, Hezbollah may rally around an interim leadership or appoint a new figure to lead. However, the transition could be tumultuous, as various factions within the organization vie for power and influence. This internal struggle could impact Hezbollah’s decision-making processes and operational capabilities, particularly regarding its military response to Israel’s actions.

1.2.Hezbollah’s Military Strategy Post-Nasrallah

Nasrallah’s death has led to a surge in calls for vengeance against Israel. As Hezbollah seeks to avenge its leader, the likelihood of increased military activity along the Israel-Lebanon border has risen significantly. Analysts suggest that Hezbollah may conduct targeted operations against Israeli military positions or engage in cross-border attacks to demonstrate its continued resolve and capability to respond to Israeli aggression .

Additionally, Hezbollah’s military strategy may evolve in response to the changing leadership dynamics. The new leader will likely seek to consolidate power while maintaining the organization’s ideological commitment to resisting Israeli occupation and influence. This could involve recalibrating its tactics and operations to ensure that Hezbollah remains a formidable adversary to Israel, despite the internal challenges posed by leadership changes.

1.3.Political Implications for Lebanon and the Region

The death of Nasrallah also carries significant political implications for Lebanon. His leadership has been instrumental in positioning Hezbollah as a central player in Lebanese politics, often acting as a counterbalance to Western-aligned factions. With Nasrallah gone, the political landscape in Lebanon may shift, creating opportunities for rival factions to challenge Hezbollah’s dominance .

Furthermore, Nasrallah’s absence may embolden anti-Hezbollah groups within Lebanon, as they could perceive this as an opportunity to undermine the organization’s power. This could lead to increased political instability in Lebanon, particularly given the existing economic crisis and social unrest that have plagued the country in recent years.

On a regional scale, Nasrallah’s death is likely to impact Iran’s strategic calculus. As a key ally, Hezbollah has served Iran’s interests in countering Israeli influence in the region. With Nasrallah gone, Iran may need to reassess its support and strategies in Lebanon, as the organization’s ability to act effectively against Israel could be compromised during the transition period. This reassessment could affect Iran’s broader objectives in the Middle East, especially in the context of its relationships with other militant groups and state actors.

1.4.Hezbollah’s Future and the Broader Conflict

The future of Hezbollah following Nasrallah’s death remains uncertain. The organization will need to navigate the complexities of leadership transition while maintaining its military posture against Israel. This challenge is compounded by the potential for increased Israeli military operations in response to any perceived weakness or instability within Hezbollah .

In conclusion, Hassan Nasrallah’s death is a critical turning point for Hezbollah, with profound implications for Lebanon and the broader Middle East. The organization must adapt to this loss while continuing to engage in a highly volatile conflict with Israel. As tensions rise, the coming months will reveal whether Hezbollah can maintain its strength and influence or if internal divisions will undermine its operational capabilities and political power

2.Lebanon: A New Front in the Conflict

The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have increasingly drawn Lebanon into the spotlight as a potential new front in the regional conflict. As Hezbollah positions itself in response to the escalating hostilities, Lebanon’s role as a battleground for proxy wars and direct military engagement has become more pronounced. This development raises critical questions about the stability of Lebanon, the safety of its citizens, and the future dynamics of the Israel-Iran rivalry.

2.1.Hezbollah’s Strategic Positioning

Hezbollah, which has long been a key player in Lebanon’s political and military landscape, has solidified its stance as a primary opponent of Israel. The organization’s military capabilities, developed over decades with significant Iranian support, allow it to engage Israel directly. As the conflict intensifies, Hezbollah is likely to escalate its military operations in response to Israeli actions, which could result in increased hostilities along the Lebanon-Israel border.

The recent death of Hassan Nasrallah could potentially alter Hezbollah’s strategic approach. In the face of a leadership transition, Hezbollah might seek to assert its relevance through military action, further entrenching Lebanon in the conflict. This could lead to a significant escalation of violence, with both sides engaging in tit-for-tat strikes that threaten civilian populations on both sides of the border.

2.2.Lebanon’s Fragile Political Landscape

Lebanon’s internal political dynamics complicate its role in the conflict. The country has faced severe economic crises, political fragmentation, and social unrest. Hezbollah’s significant political influence in Lebanon has often put it at odds with other factions, particularly those aligned with Western interests. This internal division can hinder a cohesive national response to external threats, allowing external powers to exploit the situation for their gain.

With Nasrallah’s death, rival factions within Lebanon may see an opportunity to challenge Hezbollah’s dominance. Increased political instability could embolden anti-Hezbollah sentiments, potentially leading to violence as different groups vie for power. As Lebanon grapples with its internal challenges, the prospect of external military engagement with Israel could exacerbate existing tensions and push the country further into chaos.

2.3.International Implications of a New Front

The involvement of Lebanon in the Israel-Iran conflict carries broader international implications. The United States has historically supported Israel, while Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, have received backing from countries like Russia and Syria. Any military escalation involving Lebanon could draw in these international actors, potentially igniting a wider regional conflict.

Additionally, a heightened conflict in Lebanon may prompt international calls for intervention. Countries like the United States and European nations could become involved in an effort to stabilize the region and prevent further escalation. However, such intervention could also provoke backlash from Iran and its allies, complicating diplomatic efforts.

2.4.Humanitarian Concerns

As the conflict escalates, humanitarian concerns for the Lebanese population will rise. The country has already faced immense challenges, including economic collapse, a refugee crisis, and public health issues exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased military engagement could lead to widespread displacement, loss of life, and further degradation of an already fragile healthcare system.

Lebanon’s population, many of whom are already struggling to survive amidst economic turmoil, could bear the brunt of the conflict’s repercussions. As tensions rise and military operations intensify, civilian casualties and humanitarian crises may become inevitable, drawing condemnation from international organizations and exacerbating the regional humanitarian situation.

3.The Role of Proxy Forces in the Iran-Israel Conflict

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel is characterized by a complex interplay of direct confrontations and indirect engagements, with proxy forces playing a crucial role. These proxy groups, often supported by Iran, act as strategic extensions of Iranian influence, conducting operations against Israel and other adversaries while allowing Iran to maintain plausible deniability. The significance of these proxy forces cannot be overstated, as they have shaped the dynamics of the conflict, influenced regional stability, and complicated diplomatic efforts.

3.1. Overview of Proxy Forces

Proxy forces are armed groups that are not directly part of a nation’s military but receive support from a state to achieve specific geopolitical objectives. In the context of the Iran-Israel conflict, Iran has cultivated a network of proxy forces across the Middle East, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militia groups in Syria, and militias in Iraq and Yemen. These groups are vital in Iran’s strategy to counter Israeli influence and project power in the region.

3.2. Hezbollah: The Most Prominent Proxy

Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group based in Lebanon, stands as the most significant proxy force for Iran in its conflict with Israel. Formed in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has received extensive military and financial support from Iran, enabling it to become a formidable military entity. Hezbollah’s capabilities include sophisticated missile systems and guerrilla warfare tactics, which have been employed in various confrontations with Israel.

The group’s engagement in the 2006 Lebanon War and its ongoing presence in Syria demonstrate its strategic importance to Iran. Hezbollah acts not only as a military asset but also as a political player in Lebanon, influencing domestic policies and regional strategies. The group’s rhetoric often includes strong anti-Israel sentiment, positioning it as a frontline defender of Palestinian rights, thus mobilizing popular support for its actions.

3.3. Other Proxy Forces in Syria and Iraq

In addition to Hezbollah, Iran supports several other proxy forces operating in Syria and Iraq. Groups such as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq and various Shiite militias have received Iranian backing to fight against ISIS and counter U.S. presence in the region. These militias often engage in operations against Israeli interests, particularly in the Golan Heights and northern Israel.

The Syrian Civil War has provided Iran with opportunities to expand its influence through these proxies. By supporting the Assad regime, Iran has entrenched its position in Syria, allowing it to threaten Israel directly from its northern border. Proxy forces operating in Syria often engage in rocket attacks and drone operations against Israeli targets, exacerbating tensions and escalating the conflict.

3.4. Yemen and the Houthis

The Houthi movement in Yemen is another example of Iran’s use of proxy forces to exert influence and challenge Israel indirectly. While the Houthis primarily focus on their conflict with Saudi Arabia, their missile capabilities pose a potential threat to Israel as well. The use of missile technology and drone strikes by the Houthis highlights how proxy forces can threaten regional stability and challenge established powers.

Iran’s support for the Houthis serves multiple purposes: it enables Iran to expand its influence in the Arabian Peninsula, distracts Saudi resources, and indirectly threatens Israel by potentially destabilizing the region. The use of proxies allows Iran to extend its reach without direct military engagement, complicating the regional security landscape.

3.5. Implications for Regional Stability

The involvement of proxy forces in the Iran-Israel conflict significantly impacts regional stability. The tactics employed by these groups often lead to escalations that threaten to draw in other nations, creating a volatile environment. The frequent rocket attacks from Gaza and Lebanon into Israel, supported by Iranian technology and resources, provoke military responses from Israel, which retaliates with airstrikes on the infrastructure of these proxy groups.

The dynamics of the conflict are further complicated by the involvement of external powers, including the United States and Russia, which have their interests in the region. The presence of various proxies creates a layered complexity that makes diplomatic resolutions challenging, as the actions of these groups can lead to rapid escalations that may not reflect the intentions of the states that support them.

4. Impact on Global Oil Markets

The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, particularly the potential for military confrontation, have significant implications for global oil markets. As both countries navigate their complex geopolitical landscape, the ripple effects on oil supply, prices, and market stability are palpable. Here’s an in-depth analysis of how these tensions could influence global oil dynamics.

4.1. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Iran is a key player in the global oil market, holding one of the largest reserves of crude oil in the world. Any military conflict involving Iran, especially with Israel, risks disrupting oil supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported, is particularly vulnerable to military engagements.

Should hostilities escalate, Iran might threaten or disrupt shipping through this critical maritime passage. This could lead to fears of supply shortages, causing immediate spikes in global oil prices. Such disruptions not only impact crude oil but also have cascading effects on refined products, affecting everything from gasoline prices in the U.S. to heating oil in Europe.

4.2. Price Volatility

The anticipation of conflict and potential disruptions tends to create significant volatility in oil prices. Following the assassination of key figures, such as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the markets often react swiftly, leading to fluctuations based on geopolitical risk assessments. Historically, oil prices have surged during periods of heightened tension in the Middle East. For instance, during the Gulf War in 1990-1991, oil prices skyrocketed as fears of supply interruptions loomed large.

Currently, analysts are closely monitoring price trends, with benchmarks like Brent Crude experiencing fluctuations tied to news from the region. A sustained conflict could result in a bullish market environment, where prices could rise significantly, affecting global inflation rates and economic growth.

4.3. Shifts in Demand Patterns

The geopolitical landscape can also influence oil demand. If tensions escalate and conflict spreads, nations reliant on Middle Eastern oil may seek alternative energy sources or suppliers to mitigate risks. This could accelerate investments in renewable energy and alternative fuels, as countries strive to reduce their dependence on volatile oil markets.

Additionally, as countries like the United States leverage their own shale oil production, a potential reduction in Middle Eastern oil reliance could change global demand dynamics. For instance, in response to potential supply disruptions, countries may pivot toward domestic energy solutions, impacting how Middle Eastern oil is priced and sold.

4.4. Geopolitical Alliances and Market Dynamics

The conflict also affects geopolitical alliances, which play a critical role in oil market stability. The involvement of major powers, such as the U.S., Russia, and China, can influence oil production strategies and export policies. The U.S. has historically sought to counter Iranian influence in the region, leading to sanctions and diplomatic efforts aimed at isolating Iran economically.

As Iran seeks to strengthen its alliances with countries like Russia and China, it may also look to increase its oil exports to these nations, potentially at discounted prices. This could alter global market pricing mechanisms, as Iran attempts to navigate sanctions while maintaining its oil revenues.

4.5. Long-term Strategic Considerations

The ongoing conflict also raises concerns about long-term strategic energy planning. Countries that have historically depended on Middle Eastern oil must reconsider their energy strategies in light of potential instability. The emergence of energy security as a national priority may lead to a greater emphasis on strategic reserves, alternative energy sources, and even investment in technological advancements such as carbon capture and storage.

Furthermore, the transition toward greener energy may accelerate in response to geopolitical risks. Nations may invest more heavily in renewables and energy efficiency, thereby altering the long-term demand landscape for oil.

5. The Beneficiaries: Arms Manufacturers and Defense Contractors

The ongoing tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, have significant implications for the arms industry and defense contractors. These beneficiaries thrive in environments characterized by geopolitical instability, military confrontations, and heightened national security concerns. Here’s an in-depth analysis of how these conflicts create opportunities for arms manufacturers and defense contractors.

5.1. Increased Military Spending

Conflicts often lead to increased military spending by involved nations and their allies. For instance, as Iran and Israel ramp up their military capabilities in anticipation of potential confrontations, other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, also bolster their defense spending to counter perceived threats.

In 2023, global military spending reached an all-time high of over $2 trillion, with Middle Eastern countries significantly contributing to this figure. This surge in defense budgets creates a lucrative market for arms manufacturers, who see increased orders for advanced weaponry, surveillance technologies, and military equipment .

5.2. The Role of Defense Contractors

Defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman, are well-positioned to capitalize on the conflict between Iran and Israel. These companies produce a wide range of military technologies, including fighter jets, missile systems, and cybersecurity solutions, which are in high demand during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

For example, Israel’s defense establishment has been a significant customer of American defense contractors, utilizing advanced systems like the Iron Dome missile defense system and F-35 fighter jets to maintain its military edge in the region. As tensions escalate, these defense contractors can expect to see increased orders and potentially lucrative contracts .

5.3. Proxy Warfare and Arms Supply

The Iran-Israel conflict often involves proxy warfare, where regional allies of both nations engage in combat on their behalf. This dynamic further amplifies the demand for military hardware and support services. For instance, Iran’s backing of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas means that arms manufacturers can provide military support and training not only to state actors but also to non-state actors engaged in asymmetric warfare.

This trend has been particularly evident in Syria, where Iranian-backed forces have received advanced weaponry and training from Tehran, facilitated by arms manufacturers looking to establish strong footholds in regional conflicts .

5.4. The Influence of Lobbying and Political Connections

Arms manufacturers and defense contractors often maintain significant influence in political circles, leveraging lobbying efforts to shape defense policies and ensure continued funding for military initiatives. In the U.S., defense lobbying is a powerful force, with firms investing millions in campaign contributions to politicians who support increased military spending and arms sales.

This political influence becomes particularly relevant during heightened tensions in the Middle East. For example, defense contractors may advocate for increased arms sales to allies in the region, portraying such transactions as essential for maintaining stability and security .

5.5. The Ethical Considerations

While the profitability of arms manufacturers during conflicts is evident, it raises ethical questions regarding the consequences of their products. The proliferation of advanced weaponry can lead to devastating humanitarian crises, civilian casualties, and prolonged conflicts.

Organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented the impact of arms sales on civilian populations, highlighting the responsibility of manufacturers to consider the ramifications of their products on global peace and security .

6. The Broader Global Consequences

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel not only impacts the immediate region but also reverberates across the globe, influencing geopolitical dynamics, economic stability, and international relations. This section explores the broader global consequences of this conflict, highlighting key areas affected by the escalating tensions.

6.1. Geopolitical Repercussions

The Iran-Israel conflict exacerbates existing tensions in the Middle East and has the potential to destabilize neighboring regions. The involvement of external powers, such as the United States and Russia, complicates the situation further, as each nation pursues its own strategic interests.

Increased Proxy Wars: The conflict is likely to spur further proxy wars in the region, with countries aligning themselves with either Iran or Israel. This may lead to escalated violence in countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, where Iranian influence is already significant. The United States and its allies may respond by increasing military support to opposition groups, potentially leading to a cycle of violence and retaliation.
Impact on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The tensions between Iran and Israel also affect relations within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Some GCC states, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, may seek to strengthen their military capabilities and forge alliances with Israel to counter Iran’s influence. This shift could lead to new security arrangements and defense pacts, further entrenching divisions in the region.

6.2. Economic Implications

The conflict poses significant risks to global economic stability, particularly concerning oil markets. As Iran and Israel engage in hostilities, concerns about disruptions in oil supply chains could lead to volatility in global oil prices.

Oil Price Fluctuations: The Middle East is home to a significant portion of the world’s oil reserves, and any escalation in conflict could threaten supply routes. In response, oil prices could soar, impacting global economies reliant on affordable energy. Historical precedents, such as the 1973 oil crisis, highlight how geopolitical tensions can lead to significant price increases, affecting everything from consumer costs to economic growth.
Trade Routes and Global Shipping: Increased military activity in the region can threaten crucial maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes. Any disruption could lead to increased shipping costs and affect international trade, potentially triggering economic downturns in various countries.

6.3. Humanitarian Consequences

As the conflict escalates, the humanitarian impact becomes increasingly severe. Civilians in conflict zones often bear the brunt of military operations, facing displacement, loss of life, and deteriorating living conditions.

Displacement and Refugees: Ongoing violence may lead to a surge in internally displaced persons and refugees seeking safety in neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict can strain resources in countries already struggling to accommodate large numbers of displaced people, such as Turkey and Jordan.
Human Rights Violations: Conflicts often lead to increased reports of human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and attacks on civilian infrastructure. Organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International frequently document these abuses, highlighting the need for international accountability and intervention.

6.4. Shift in International Relations

The Iran-Israel conflict can lead to realignments in international relations, as countries reassess their alliances based on evolving security and economic interests.

Changing Alliances: The United States has historically supported Israel, while Iran has sought to expand its influence across the region. As tensions escalate, countries may feel compelled to choose sides, leading to shifts in diplomatic relations. Countries like Turkey and Russia may seek to leverage the situation to enhance their influence in the region, complicating U.S. foreign policy.
Emergence of New Powers: The conflict may also provide opportunities for emerging powers, such as China and India, to strengthen their economic ties in the Middle East. By positioning themselves as neutral parties, these countries can engage in trade and investment initiatives, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

6.5. Broader Implications for Global Security

The Iran-Israel conflict reflects broader global security concerns, as rising nationalism, religious extremism, and authoritarianism challenge established norms of international cooperation.

Increasing Militarization: As countries invest in military capabilities to address perceived threats, the global arms race may intensify. This militarization can lead to a deterioration of diplomatic relations and an increased likelihood of conflict.
Impact on Global Institutions: The inability of international institutions, such as the United Nations, to effectively mediate the conflict raises questions about their relevance in contemporary global politics. As states prioritize national interests over collective security, the foundations of international cooperation may weaken, making it more challenging to address global issues, such as climate change and pandemics.

Conclusion: Is Israel Pushing Toward a Larger Conflict?

The assassination of key figures such as Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, combined with the rising tensions between Israel and Iran, has set the stage for a potential full-scale regional war. The involvement of proxy forces, the potential disruption of global oil supplies, and the broader geopolitical stakes all point to the possibility of a larger conflict that could draw in superpowers and reshape the global political landscape.

Lebanon stands at a precarious crossroads, with the potential for becoming a new front in the conflict between Iran and Israel. As Hezbollah navigates the post-Nasrallah landscape, the organization’s actions will significantly influence Lebanon’s political and social stability. The intersection of regional tensions, internal strife, and humanitarian concerns creates a complex web of challenges that Lebanon must address in the coming months.

The international community must remain vigilant as developments unfold, recognizing the implications of Lebanon’s involvement in the broader conflict. Efforts to engage in diplomatic solutions and address humanitarian needs will be crucial to mitigate the potential fallout from escalating hostilities.

The role of proxy forces in the Iran-Israel conflict is a defining feature of the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. As Iran continues to bolster its network of proxies, the potential for conflict and instability remains high. Understanding the motivations, capabilities, and impacts of these proxy groups is essential for comprehending the broader implications for regional security and the future of Israeli-Iranian relations.

As the situation evolves, the international community must remain vigilant in addressing the complexities introduced by these proxy forces. Efforts to foster dialogue and pursue diplomatic solutions will be crucial in mitigating the risks associated with these groups and preventing further escalation of hostilities.

The potential for conflict between Iran and Israel carries significant implications for global oil markets. From supply chain vulnerabilities and price volatility to shifts in demand patterns and geopolitical alliances, the impact on the oil market is profound and multifaceted. As the situation evolves, stakeholders in the global economy must remain vigilant and adaptive to navigate the complexities introduced by these tensions.

The future for arms manufacturers and defense contractors in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict appears promising, with ongoing military developments likely to sustain demand for advanced weaponry. As both nations continue to enhance their military capabilities, the role of arms manufacturers will remain pivotal in shaping the landscape of modern warfare.

In conclusion, the beneficiaries of the Iran-Israel conflict, particularly arms manufacturers and defense contractors, play a significant role in the dynamics of geopolitical tensions. As military spending rises and proxy warfare becomes more prevalent, these entities are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing instability, raising important ethical considerations about their influence on global peace and security.

The Iran-Israel conflict has far-reaching global consequences that extend beyond the immediate region. From geopolitical shifts and economic volatility to humanitarian crises and changes in international relations, the repercussions of this conflict are profound and multifaceted. As the situation continues to evolve, the international community must grapple with the implications of these developments for global stability and security. The challenge lies in fostering diplomatic solutions that can address the underlying tensions while promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

While Israel’s actions may be aimed at securing its own borders, the risk of escalation is clear. As Iran prepares for revenge and Hezbollah steps up its military activities, the world watches closely, aware that any further escalation could have catastrophic consequences for both the region and the world at large.

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